ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE HISTORY
Historians generally agree that the Progressive Era ended at the beginning of the 1920’s, however, we have split the WWI economy from the Progressive Era due to the dramatic economic upheaval caused by the war.
The onset of WWI dramatically changed the economic landscape as spending on the war precipitated very large budget deficits in 1918 and 1919, a rapid increase in money creation and double digit inflation. By the final years of the Progressive era, economic conditions had deteriorated considerably with the CEPPI indicator registering Poor for the years 1917-1920.
EPI DATA FOR UNITED STATES: 1914 - 1920
| Year | Inflation Rate (%) | Unemployment Rate (%) | Budget Deficit as a Percent of GDP (%) | Change in Real GDP (%) | Raw EPI Score (%) | Change From Previous Year | Raw EPI performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1914 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | -7.9 | 82.6 | -14 | Fair |
| 1915 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 92.4 | 10 | Good |
| 1916 | 7.9 | 6.5 | -0.1 | 13.9 | 99.6 | 7 | Excellent |
| 1917 | 17.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | -2.7 | 73.0 | -26 | Poor |
| 1918 | 18.0 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 76.6 | 3 | Poor |
| 1919 | 14.6 | 2.3 | 17.5 | 0.4 | 66.1 | -10 | Poor |
| 1920 | 15.6 | 5.2 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 78.1 | 12 | Poor |