It’s easy to rank sports teams. There are a clear set of rules, a clear scoring system, and a transparent record of the teams’ past wins and losses.
Ranking US presidents, on the other hand, is nearly impossible. First, what is important? Which topics should be scored and which ignored? And even if something is important enough to consider, how do you assign points? How do you measure the effect of a president’s actions in the short-term and the long-term?
Dozens of publications and organizations have attempted to do so, from the Wall Street Journal to History News Network to the Institute for the Study of the Americas at the University of London. Those serious about the rankings attempt to minimize the bias that such a ranking necessarily includes. Such surveys usually put the larger-than-life American heroes high on the list—such as George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, FDR, JFK, and Thomas Jefferson—and disliked or even disgraced presidents at the bottom, such as Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter.
But for The 5-Minute Economist, the inevitable question is simple: how well did the economy do under their watch? Did presidents’ policies improve the performance of the economy or not?
As we’ve already said, we can’t ascribe the failure of the economy to one person anymore than we can credit its success to them. We have to believe, though, that a president’s policies and decisions must have some effect on the economy. Logically, the longer the president is in office, the greater that effect should be.
Therefore, to rank US presidents, in this study we’re going to rank them according to the difference in the EPI score from their first full year in office to their last full year. We offer the rankings of all the presidents in a table at the end of this section, but to begin with, let’s focus on post-WWII presidents:
So Ronald Reagan leads the pack with an astounding 15% increase in the EPI from when he took office until he handed the reins to George H.W. Bush. George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, and Jimmy Carter bring up the rear with a cringe-inducing decrease of more than 10%. Let’s break down all eleven and see what contributed to how these leaders wound up with the scores they did.
(1) RONALD REAGAN (R) 1981-1989
President Reagan gets an advantage in this particular ranking because the economy was doing so poorly to begin with when he took office; the EPI scored it at 76.4% in 1981. Despite what many fiscal conservatives assert, he presided over a collection of fiscally expansive policies, from defense spending to greater social welfare programs, that tripled the national debt. Combine that with a marked reduction in federal income taxes and it sounds like a recipe for disaster. However, the Federal Reserve tightening of the money supply tamed inflation and GDP growth picked up in the mid-1980s, with unemployment dropping to 5.3% by the end of his term.
The result: an EPI score of 90.8%, making his presidency the best—economically—in recent history.
(2) BARACK OBAMA (D) 2009-2016
Similarly, President Obama gets a boost because of how bad things were when he took office. The global financial crisis was just getting underway and the US economy was performing at 74.5%, worse than when Reagan took office. In spite of a breath-taking spending surge, the economy has scored high at the end of his term. After taking eight years to recover, the US and wider global economies have rebounded. Moderate GDP growth and low unemployment, combined with a stable inflation rate, allow President Obama to leave an economic legacy to rival Reagan’s.
(3) BILL CLINTON (D) 1993-2001
You would probably have expected President Clinton to score high on this list. The 1990s were a period of almost unprecedented growth in US history, fueled by a surge in global trade, the rise of the tech sector, and undiminished economic growth in nearly every sector. At the same time, inflation, unemployment, and the federal deficit all fell. If you ranked the presidents by the average EPI score during their term (instead of the change), Clinton actually scores higher than Reagan and Obama. Furthermore, President Clinton’s last full year in office was just as the tech bubble was popping and years before the housing crisis.
(4) JOHN F. KENNEDY (D) 1961-1963,
(6) DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER (R) 1953-1961,
AND (7) LYNDON B. JOHNSON (D) 1963-1969
The fourth, sixth and seventh places go to Kennedy, Eisenhower, and Johnson respectively. The span of these terms from 1953 to 1969 encompasses the “golden age of capitalism”— the post-war prosperity years. Growth happened almost magically, jobs abounded, the global demand for American goods kept inflation down yet wages up, and the middle class rose to a new standard of living. The average EPI score during this period was about 96.5%, a solid A, for nearly two decades.
Despite this prosperity, the presidents’ rankings aren’t that impressive. Kennedy experienced a scant 3.0% increase. Eisenhower and Johnson both lost ground with -3.2% and -4.2% respectively. Although they presided over one of the greatest periods of economic success in US history, individually their impact seems negligible.
(5) GEORGE H. W. BUSH (R) 1989-1993
President George H. W. Bush falls squarely in the middle of these eleven leaders, losing 3.2% from assuming the office from Reagan. Still, he left the economy running at 88.3%, a fine C+ performance as far as the EPI is concerned. He might have performed better, but a slowdown in the economy from its rampant growth in the 80s, combined with a ballooning federal deficit (not helped by the war in the Middle East) left him with an economy that ultimately cost him the presidency.
(9) GEORGE W. BUSH (R) 2001-2009
George W. Bush’s policies certainly didn’t help the economy avoid the Great Recession and whether the ensuing global financial crisis. Like his father, he took office immediately after a period of fantastic economic growth, so it would have been difficult to leave the White House with the economy in even better shape. However, between his rounds of tax cuts, rebate checks, and funding two international wars plus the war on terror, the debt-to-GDP ratio increased precipitously. When he handed the presidency to Barack Obama, the economy was already slipping into the worst recession since the Great Depression.
(8) GERALD FORD (R) 1974-1977, (10) RICHARD NIXON(R) 1969-1974, AND (11) JIMMY CARTER (D) 1977-1981
After two decades of growth under Kennedy, Eisenhower, and Johnson, the economy slid into a decade of the doldrums under Nixon, Ford, and Carter. Although many historians state the post-war prosperity period lasted until the recession of 1973, the EPI clearly shows the economy began deteriorating in the late 1960s, as inflation and the federal deficit grew while GDP growth slowed.
Historians tend to agree that the political leadership and economic policies of these presidents were particularly weak and misguided. Such examples include Bretton Woods, where the American dollar was unlinked from the gold standard, wage and price controls, the expansion of unsustainable social insurance programs, the unsuccessful “Whip Inflation Now” initiative, “windfall taxes” on energy, and more.
Altogether, this was a period of high inflation, high interest rates, vastly increased government spending, start-and-stall economic growth, and misguided fiscal and economic policies in which each president left the economy worse off than when they found it.
RANKING OF ALL PRESIDENTS
If we’re going to judge presidents solely on the difference between when they took office and when they stepped down, though, we need to see all of them to have some context.
Interestingly enough, the president almost universally acknowledged to be the best since the founding fathers, Abraham Lincoln, ranks dead last for average EPI during his office. Obviously, a president’s legacy really is about more than just “the economy, stupid.”
EPI RANKING OF THE US PRESIDENTS
| # | President | R/D (F—federalist; I—independent; W—whig) |
Years | Avg EPI during the term | Avg EPI during the term | Change in Average EPI |
| 1 | Franklin D. Roosevelt: 1933–1945 | D | 1933–1945 | 33.1 | 83.3 | 7.5 |
| 2 | Andrew Johnson: 1865–1869 | D | 1865–1869 | 26.1 | 89.2 | 14.1 |
| 3 | William Howard Taft: 1909–1913 | R | 1909–1913 | 18.9 | 97.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | John Tyler (Harrison NR): 1841–1845 | I | 1841–1845 | 17.3 | 92.5 | 0.9 |
| 5 | Harry S. Truman: 1945–1953 | D | 1945–1953 | 15.9 | 89.1 | 5.8 |
| 6 | Ronald Reagan: 1981–1989 | R | 1981–1989 | 15.1 | 87.1 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Warren G. Harding: 1921–1923 | R | 1921–1923 | 14.2 | 84.3 | 1.2 |
| 8 | Rutherford B. Hayes: 1877–1881 | R | 1877–1881 | 13.2 | 101.1 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Millard Fillmore: 1850–1853 | W | 1850–1853 | 11.0 | 98.6 | 8.2 |
| 10 | Barack Obama: 2009–2016 | D | 2009–2016 | 9.9 | 84.4 | -6.1 |
| 11 | William McKinley: 1897–1901 | R | 1897–1901 | 7.2 | 97.7 | 6.9 |
| 12 | Gerald Ford: 1974–1977 | R | 1975–1977 | 5.9 | 83.5 | -7.4 |
| 13 | Bill Clinton: 1993–2001 | D | 1993–2001 | 5.9 | 94.2 | 6.5 |
| 14 | John Adams: 1797–1801 | F | 1797–1801 | 5.9 | 93.6 | 1.9 |
| 15 | James Monroe: 1817–1825 | D | 1817–1825 | 5.7 | 91.9 | 3.2 |
| 16 | Benjamin Harrison: 1889–1893 | R | 1889–1893 | 4.8 | 99.4 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Ulysses S. Grant: 1869–1877 | R | 1869–1877 | 4.2 | 96.2 | 7.0 |
| 18 | James Madison: 1809–1817 | D | 1809–1817 | 3.7 | 88.7 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Calvin Coolidge: 1923–1929 | R | 1923–1929 | 3.1 | 99.7 | 15.4 |
| 20 | John F. Kennedy: 1961–1963 | D | 1961–1963 | 3.0 | 96.2 | 0.1 |
| 21 | James Buchanan: 1857–1861 | D | 1857–1861 | 1.8 | 94.1 | -1.3 |
| 22 | Andrew Jackson: 1829–1837 | D | 1829–1837 | 1.2 | 96.7 | 0.9 |
| 23 | John Quincy Adams: 1825–1829 | D | 1825–1829 | 1.2 | 95.8 | 3.9 |
| 24 | George H. W. Bush: 1989–1993 | R | 1989–1993 | -3.2 | 87.6 | 0.5 |
| 25 | Dwight D. Eisenhower: 1953–1961 | R | 1953–1961 | -3.2 | 96.1 | 6.9 |
| 26 | Grover Cleveland: 1885–1889 | D | 1885–1889 | -3.7 | 97.9 | -0.7 |
| 27 | Lyndon B. Johnson: 1963–1969 | D | 1963–1969 | -4.2 | 97.2 | 1.0 |
| 28 | Zachary Taylor: 1849–1850 | W | 1849–1850 | -4.5 | 90.4 | -4.2 |
| 29 | Franklin Pierce: 1853–1857 | D | 1853–1857 | -5.0 | 95.3 | -3.3 |
| 30 | James K. Polk: 1845–1849 | D | 1845–1849 | -5.9 | 94.6 | 2.1 |
| 31 | Grover Cleveland: 1893–1897 | D | 1893–1897 | -8.6 | 90.8 | -8.6 |
| 32 | Martin Van Buren: 1837–1841 | D | 1837–1841 | -9.7 | 91.6 | -5.1 |
| 33 | George W. Bush: 2001–2009 | R | 2001–2009 | -10.8 | 90.5 | -3.7 |
| 34 | Richard Nixon: 1969–1974 | R | 1969–1975 | -11.5 | 90.9 | -6.3 |
| 35 | Jimmy Carter: 1977–1981 | D | 1977–1981 | -12.2 | 85.0 | 1.4 |
| 36 | Chester A. Arthur (Garfield NR 1881): 1881–1885 | R | 1881–1885 | -14.3 | 98.6 | -2.6 |
| 37 | Thomas Jefferson: 1801–1809 | D | 1801–1809 | -15.2 | 91.5 | -2.2 |
| 38 | Woodrow Wilson: 1913–1921 | D | 1913–1921 | -18.2 | 83.1 | -14.4 |
| 39 | Theodore Roosevelt: 1901–1909 | R | 1901–1909 | -18.9 | 97.0 | -0.7 |
| 40 | Abraham Lincoln: 1861–1865 | R | 1861–1865 | -30.7 | 75.1 | -19.0 |
| 41 | Herbert Hoover: 1929–1933 | R | 1929–1933 | -45.8 | 75.8 | -23.9 |
| George Washington: 1789–1797 | I | 1789–1797 | 91.8 |
